FK Arsenal Česká Lípa vs FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem — Prediction analysis

International Club Friendly • Friday, 2 October 2026 • — FK Arsenal Česká Lípa vs FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem

2 – 3

Final score

✗ Prediction wrong

Our pick was: Home Win @ 1.56

By XWhiz Data Team · Updated 2026-10-03 · Model Dixon-Coles v3 · Data: football-data.org · Methodology

All predictions for this competition FK Arsenal Česká Lípa FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem

XWHIZ STATISTICAL PICK

Home Win @ 1.56

61% ConfidenceValue +1%1 • Full Time

61%

Confidence

FK Arsenal Česká Lípa

61%

Draw

21%

FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem

19%

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All markets & predicted odds

All markets & predicted odds	Model probability	Pick / odds	Confidence
1X2	61% / 21% / 19%	Home Win @ 1.56	61%
Double Chance	82% / 40% / 80%	1X / X2 / 12	82%
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5 52% • Under 2.5 48%	Over @ 1.83	52%
Both Teams To Score	Yes 49% • No 51%	BTTS Yes @ 2.04	49%
Correct Score	1-0 (13%)	1-0	13%

Prediction analysis

We model the FK Arsenal Česká Lípa vs FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem match (Competition: International Club Friendly) with a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson process. Estimated expected goals are 1.87–0.9 in favour of a neutral observer. The implied probabilities are P(Home) 61%, P(Draw) 21%, P(Away) 19%. The model recommendation is Home Win at fair odds of 1.56, with 61% confidence.

Most likely exact scores

Inside the score matrix, the three most probable final scores are 1-0 (13%) · 2-0 (11%) · 2-1 (10%).

Why Home Win?

Bet on the home team to win in 90 minutes — market 1 on the 1X2.
Form & context: No recent-form feed for this fixture — model uses Elo ratings (1600 vs 1600, evenly matched on Elo) plus league-average attack/defence.
Team news: · Line-ups are confirmed roughly one hour before kick-off. Check the official club channels for late changes.

How to approach this pick

Odds move as teams are confirmed, so compare prices across bookmakers shortly before kick-off. Stake only what you are comfortable losing and never chase losses.

Where to bet

If you register as a new customer at Melbet with code KIKOS77, you can claim a welcome offer — but any licensed bookmaker works. Responsible gambling: 18+. — Register with Melbet

Responsible gambling: our predictions are statistical analysis for information and entertainment — they are not a guarantee of profit. 18+. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. · Get responsible gambling help

Frequently asked questions

Who is the statistical favourite in FK Arsenal Česká Lípa vs FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem?

The Dixon-Coles model gives FK Arsenal Česká Lípa a 61% chance, the draw 21% and FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem 19%. With expected goals of 1.87–0.9, the recommended pick is Home Win at fair odds of 1.56 (61% confidence).

Is this prediction guaranteed?

No. Home Win is a probability estimate, not a guarantee. Statistical models reduce risk but betting always involves uncertainty. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

When does FK Arsenal Česká Lípa vs FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem kick off?

Kick-off: — FK Arsenal Česká Lípa vs FK Viagem Ústí nad Labem on Friday, 2 October 2026 (International Club Friendly). Check official club channels for late team-news changes.